The Hope that Springs Eternal

Hope that Springs Eternal

I was reminded of a particular afternoon some years ago at the horse races as I viewed the outcome of Sunday’s Belmont Stakes. Some friends and I traveled to Laurel Park outside of Washington, D.C. to watch my horse, Morning Thrill compete. I have since learned never to take any casual friends to a race in which one of my horses is running, for the disappointment that usually follows dampens the entire adventure. Only those friends that I know can handle my sour mood after a horse that I’ve raised has failed to live up to expectations are allowed to accompany me on such occasions.

But on this particular afternoon, I hadn’t learned that lesson yet. My horse raced in the fifth or sixth race and finished unspectacularly. The friends that had tagged along had never been to the races before and while they were having a more enjoyable time than I, they hadn’t cashed a betting ticket all day. Before the tenth and final race of the afternoon they said, “We are determined to bet on a horse that will win.” So they bet on every horse in the race.

A long shot won, and they were ecstatic. The winning payout more than cover the cost of purchasing a win ticket on all twelve horses and it made me think of a possible way of beating the betting odds – bet against the favorite.

If a bettor were to place win tickets on all the horses, only when a horse with an outside chance or longer would make the payout worth the wager, but by picking those races that there was a false favorite, then a bet on ever other horse might make sense. You wouldn’t care who won the race, so long as it wasn’t the betting choice of the masses. For this year’s Kentucky Derby you would have banked $100. It would have cost you $38 to cover ever horse but the ‘chalk’ as the favorite is referred to. You would have lost in the Preakness as Rachel was favored, but you would have come out ahead in the Belmont stakes.

I haven’t actually ever tried to put this theory in practice, as it would take a fair bankroll to start and a couple of races in a row with the favored horse winning would be rather expensive, but if someone would lend me a thousand dollars to try my scheme, I’d be glad to report back if it’s successful.

But mean time, I’ve attached a picture of this year’s hope. Her name is Lola – daughter of Morning Thrill, granddaughter of Thrilling Date, great-granddaughter of Silver Thrill. Her racing name will be Thrilling Alora, named for a grandniece. She looks good, but how can you tell at this stage? As of six weeks of age, she has both the conformation and the constitution to be a racer, but she’ll have to outrun her pedigree to be truly successful. I suspect that she’ll go off not as the bettor’s favorite her first race so bet $2 on all the horses excluding the favorite. That way, if she wins we’re all delighted. If she fails to win, and some other long shot does, you take home some money.